07 February, 2007

Canada: 2006-07 barley exports are forecast to decrease significantly

For 2006-07, Canada barley exports are forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to decrease significantly due to lower exports of feed barley. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to the second lowest in recent history. Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to average significantly higher than 2005-06, due to high corn prices in the US and low supplies of barley in Canada, AAFC stated in its Grains And Oilseeds Outlook on February 6, 2007.

For 2007-08, barley production is forecast to increase by 21% due to higher area seeded and yields. Total supply is also forecast to rise sharply. Exports are expected to increase slightly, while feed use remains similar to 2006-07. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase. The average off-Board feed barley price is forecast to fall by 10%, as the pressure from higher domestic and global barley production more than offsets the support from higher corn prices. For similar reasons, CWB pool returns are forecast by AAFC to decline, particularly for two-row designated barley.

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