11 October, 2024

World: Barley trade, crop forecasts down in USDA’s October report

Global barley trade forecast for 2024/25 is reduced to 27.184 mln tonnes in USDA’s October report, down from 27.859 mln forecast last month and from 31.797 mln tonnes estimated for 2023/24.

Export forecast is down for the EU (6.3 mln tonnes vs. 6.5 mln in the September report, 6.6 mln tonnes in 2022/23), Russia (3.4 mln vs. 4 and 5.8 mln tonnes) and up for Argentina (3.4 mln tonnes vs. 3.2 mln in the September report, 3 mln tonnes in 2023/24).

Import forecast is down for Iran (1.2 mln tonnes v.s 1.8 mln last month and 1.1 mln tonnes in 2023/24) and Jordan (900 thousand tonnes vs. 1 mln and 700 thousand, respectively).

World barley crop forecast is down to 142.89 mln tonnes this month, vs. 144.305 mln tonnes in the September report and 142.588 mln tonnes forecast for 2023/24. Production forecasts are down for the EU (50.85 mln tonnes vs. 51.45 mln in September, 47.86 mln tonnes in 2023/24), Russia (17.5 mln tonnes vs. 18.3 and 20.5 mln tonnes, respectively), and the UK (7.3 mln tonnes vs. 7.5 mln and 6.963 mln tonnes, respectively) and up for Argentina (4.9 mln tonnes vs. 4.7 mln tonnes in the September forecast and 5.1 mln tonnes in 2023/24).

World barley consumption is seen at 147.313 mln tonnes (148.456 mln tonnes in USDA’s September forecast and 141.578 mln tonnes forecast for 2023/24) and ending stocks at 17.547 mln tonnes (17.413 mln tonnes and 21.97 mln tonnes, respectively).

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