Australia: Barley production expected to drop by 7% in 2018-19

Australia’s barley production is forecast to fall by 7% to around 8.3 million tonnes in 2018-19, ABARES reported on September 10.

Total winter crops production is forecast to decrease by 12% to 33.2 million tonnes with production declines forecast in all eastern states (including South Australia). This is a 12% downward revision from the ABARES forecast published in the June 2018 edition of Australian
Crop report.

While crop prospects fell over winter in many cropping regions, winter crop production in 2018–19 is expected to be significantly higher than in years with more widespread drought conditions. In 2018–19, exceptionally unfavourable seasonal conditions have been limited to Queensland, New South Wales and parts of Victoria and South Australia. In contrast, extremely unfavourable seasonal conditions affected most cropping regions in Australia during droughts in 1994–95, 2002–03, 2006–07 and 2007–08, resulting in lower national crop production than is forecast for 2018–19.

In New South Wales, 2018-19 barley production is forecast to fall by 36% in 2018–19 to 762,000 tonnes. Area planted to barley is estimated to have fallen by 24% to 600,000 hectares, which reflects the below average rainfall.

Queensland’s barley production in 2018–19 is forecast to fall by 14% to around 104,000 tonnes. This reflects a 15% fall in planted area and a marginal increase in the average yield.

Victoria’s 2018–19 barley production is forecast to fall by 21% to 1.7 million tonnes. The average yield is forecast to decrease by 29% to 1.9 tonnes per hectare. This is expected to be partially offset by an estimated 10% increase in planted area, in response to favourable expected returns.

In South Australia, barley production is forecast to increase by 6% to 1.9 million tonnes. Area planted is estimated to have increased by 12% due to higher expected returns and drier than average seasonal conditions during the planting window. Barley is more tolerant of drier conditions than other winter crops.

Western Australia’s barley production is forecast to increase by 4% to 3.9 million tonnes. The average yield is forecast to decrease slightly compared to 2017–18. The average barley yield in 2017–18 was the second-highest on record for Western Australia, and is unlikely to be achieved again given the 8% rise in planted area in 2018–19.

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