Canada: Barley exports to increase by 12% in 2012-13

For 2012-13, Canada’s barley exports are forecast to increase by 12% to 2.3 mln tonnes, due to a significant increase of feed barley exports but lower exports of malting barley and barley products as selection rates were slightly below average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on February, 21.

Carryout stocks are forecast to decrease by 33% to a record low of 0.8 mln tonnes.

The In-store Lethbridge barley price is forecast to increase by about 20% due to higher coarse grain prices in the US and record low total supply in Canada. The price premium for malting barley relative to feed barley remains low. In its latest report, the IGC forecasts world barley production, trade and carry out stocks to decrease by 3%, 15% and 9%, respectively from 2011-12.

For 2013-14 seeded area is forecast to increase by 5% from 2012-13 to 3.15 mln ha due to competitive barley prices vs. other prairie crops. Production is forecast to increase by 12% to 9 mln tonnes but supply will increase only modestly (to 9.82 mln tonnes from 9.55 mln tonnes in 2012-13) due to low carry-in stocks.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 2% to 6.22 mln tonnes due mainly to a slight increase in livestock feeding. Exports are forecast to decrease by 9% to 2.1 mln tonnes due to a recovery in world barley production. Carryout stocks are forecast to increase significantly (to 1.5 mln tonnes) but remain below the previous 10-year average.

Domestic feed barley prices are forecast to decrease from 2012-13 due to higher supply and carryout stocks.

World feed and malting barley prices are expected to decrease due to the recovery in world barley and corn production. Given the potential decline in world coarse feed grain prices, the price premium for world malting barley, relative to feed barley, should return to near normal levels.