China: The precarious world balance of malting barley will change the mood in China, analysts said

China is maintaining its position as the largest importer of malting barley in the world, as USDA and IGC still estimate imports of 2.2 million tonnes in 2006/07. “But where will they get this quantity?” analysts ask. China's beer output of minimum 330 million hl requires only 3.3 million tonnes of malt equal 4.1 million tonnes of barley (maybe 200.000 tons of wheat).

The Chinese crop of malting barley is 2.3-2.5 million tonnes. The winter barley crop of the Central South (Shanghai) is of mediocre quality, spring barley from Gansu and Xinjiang as well as from the north, i.e. Heilongjiang and Hebei, fairly good.

If the industry accepts these quantities, China is still left with an import deficit of min. 1.5 million tonnes, and even that quantity can hardly be found, at least till the uncertain crop of 2007 in Europe. The precarious world balance will change the mood in China, as even all the large maltsters and brewers will use domestic barley and support its cultivation in future years.

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