Australia: ABB Grain Ltd reviewed gross barley pool estimates for 2005/06 and increased by AU$5/tonne its malting barley pool estimates
ABB Grain Ltd has reviewed its gross barley pool indicators for 2005/2006 and has increased by AU$5/tonne its malting barley estimates, and has also increased its estimates for new season (2006/2007) malting and feed barley, the company announced August 22.
ABB Grain’s General Manager Marketing, Nigel Officer, said extremely hot and dry conditions in Europe and North America, besides a continuing “major uncertainty” about the forthcoming Australian barley crop, had led to the increase in estimated pool returns.
“It’s been an extremely hot and dry summer in Europe, and the consequent increase in barley prices and malt prices has pushed competitor values in China, our major destination for malting barley, higher,” Mr Officer said. “Freight rates also remain high and this has added to our competitive position as the spread in freight rates between EU and Australia has widened.
“Meanwhile, the Canadian harvest has only recently begun, but their crop has been reduced to an estimate of less than 10 million tonnes – down from an earlier forecast of 11.3 million tonnes. It’s expected that significant volumes of Canadian barley will now go over the border to the U.S, which has had its smallest barley crop since 1936. This in turn means less Canadian barley available to compete against ABB in other export markets.
“As a result, we are increasing the malting barley estimate for 2005/2006 by AU$5/tonne, to AU$193/t, while feed barley remains unchanged at AU$163/t, as we have now essentially shipped and received payment for last harvest’s feed barley.”
Mr Officer said major uncertainty remained about the size and quality of the coming Australian barley harvest because of a largely dry winter in many regions.
“For the 2006/2007 crop, a major mitigating factor to higher pool indicators is the strengthening of the AU$,” he said. “Nevertheless, we’ve still been able to increase the new season malting barley estimate by AU$5/t to AU$194/t, and raise the feed barley estimate by AU$2/t to AU$168/t.”
Gross estimates for last season’s and new season’s barley are as follows:
South Australian pools 2005/2006 season
No. 1 malting (closed January 24) AU$193/tonne
No.1 feed (closed January 24) AU$163/tonne
No.2 malting (opened January 24) AU$175/tonne
No.2 feed (opened January 24) AU$150/tonne
2006/2007 season
No.1 malting AU$194/tonne
No.1 feed AU$168/tonne
Victorian and East Coast pools 2005/2006 season
Victorian No. 1 malting (closed October 31, 2005) AU$198/tonne
Victorian No.1 feed (closed October 31, 2005) AU$168/tonne
East Coast (Vic, NSW & Qld) No.2 malting (closed January 24) AU$193/tonne
East Coast (Vic, NSW & Qld) No.2 feed (closed January 24) AU$163/tonne
East Coast (Vic, NSW & Qld) No.3 malting (opened January 24) AU$175/tonne
East Coast (Vic, NSW & Qld) No.3 feed (opened January 24) AU$150/tonne
A AU$5/t premium also applies to Baudin and Sloop malting varieties for 2005/2006. These premiums will not apply in 2006/07.
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