Canada: First CWB PRO for 2006-07 range from C$1 to C$5 per tonne lower for malting barley
The CWB released on February 27 its first Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2006-07 crop year. The 2006-2007 feed barley PRO (Pool A) is down C$12 per tonne, while malting barley PROs range from C$1 to C$5 per tonne lower, compared to the February PRO for the 2005-06 crop year.
Feed barley
Global feed barley import demand is projected to decline in 2006-07, due primarily to increased barley production in North Africa and the Middle East. Barley production is also projected to increase in the Black Sea region, as Ukraine and Russia are expected to increase spring barley area due to greatly reduced winter wheat area. Burdensome Australian barley supplies are expected to weigh on export values over the next number of months until its supply situation eases. Barley production in the European Union is expected to increase, but the EU has not been aggressive in subsidizing exports. Canada's potential for feed barley exports will be influenced by the volume of the Canadian domestic crop, ocean freight rates, and foreign exchange.
Designated barley
Global malting barley trade is projected to increase due to stronger demand in China and the United States. Rising beer production in China will continue to increase malting barley demand, but the size and quality of the Chinese barley crop will also influence their import demand. Increased U.S. demand and relatively stable prices are expected to boost six-row malting barley price prospects. Australian production is expected to pressure two-row prices over the short-term. A continuation of weaker ocean freight rates would be a positive factor and the relatively strong Canadian dollar will be a negative factor for Canadian malt barley returns.
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