Bulgaria: Barley supply and demand balance changed substantially

“The main reason for the adjustment of the barley market trends was a substantial reduction of barley harvest,” Bulgarian market analysts have recently commented.

In June, the barley harvest of Bulgaria was supposed to come in at 700-800 thousand metric tonnes, whereas in September no more than 650 thousand metric tonnes. November harvest estimations are at 625 thousand metric tonnes versus 1.18 million metric tonnes in 2004.

Such a reduction is explained by unfavorable weather. It was raining intensively in Bulgaria from July until September, which significantly delayed harvesting. Excessive moisture did harm to both harvest quality and yield. According to our assessment, barley yield will not exceed 2.5 mt/ha this year (3.59 mt/ha in 2004).

Although Bulgaria exported 135 thousand metric tonnes of barley in the season’s first three months alone, we think that the country’s export potential is already almost exhausted. Thus, we have reduced our October export estimates from 200 thousand metric tonnes to 160 thousand metric tonnes.

The following regions were the main importers of Bulgarian barley: Eastern Asia – 59.6%, Northern Africa – 11.5%. 28.9% of the total quantity was exported to the EU countries (40 KMT). It is worth reminding that the quota for duty free barley imports into the EU countries is equal to 60 thousand metric tonnes for the season of 2005/2006.

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