World: Analysts about barley world markets for October

Analysts report that world markets of barley have been inactive in October. Nevertheless supply and demand appear to be in fine balance. After all, the EU crop was 9 Million tones less than a year ago, old crop intervention stocks are little more than half a Million tones, and the Commission has not granted any export restitution for free market exports since many weeks.

Early in the season barley exports were surprisingly large from Russia and the U.S., but they are drying up due to lack of supplies. It remains to be seen, whether the Ukraine will reach its export target of 4 Million tones, as sellers of all grains have become more reluctant in face of a possible crop failure of winter grains in 2006. Canada has reentered successfully the export market of feed barley and may have further supplies, but much less malting barley than hoped for.

Australia expects a large barley crop, and will have no problem to sell its export surplus. Demand for feed barley is larger than a year ago in North Africa (e.g. Morocco 800,000 tones), and almost unchanged in the Middle East. Turkey sold 260,000 tones for export, but Bulgaria and Romania will almost drop out as suppliers.

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