Canada: Barley exports in 2004/05 were only 1.2 million tonnes

Canadian carry-over barley stocks on the 1st of August were 3.5 million tonnes versus 2.1 million tonnes in 2004. Exports in 2004/05 were only 1.2 million tonnes as compared to 1.75 million tonnes a year earlier. Main destinations were China 674,000 tonnes, USA 186,000 tonnes, Japan 154,000 tons. At the end of September 60 % the Western Canadian crop had been harvested, the first 25-30 % of good, further 30 % of variable quality. As rainfalls have recommenced, the quality of any barley still in the fields will be of doubtful quality and condition.

Pessimists in Canada expect a malting barley pool (=total selection) of 1.5 million tonnes, optimists still hope for 1.9 million tonnes. Domestic needs may be around 900,000 tonnes, the export surplus will be between 600,000 and 1 million tonnes.

The CWB has sold new crop barley to China and remains a seller, prices in the "high 190's". Recently the Board had successfully operated in the feed barley market, but further sales will depend on domestic demand. That demand could explode, if the Canadian government really imposes an import duty on U.S. Yellow Corn. This crop year's exports are 430,000 tonnes to-date.

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