World: By 2011 world malting barley trade is to grow by 14%
Australia’s Grains Research and Development Corporation forecasts an annual increase in the world beer demand of 2%. Rob McCaig from Canadian Malting Barley and Technical Centre foresees a world malting barley trade increase from 5.6 million tonnes in 2005 to 6.4 million metric tonnes in 2011. The Canadian Wheat Board lifted the 6 row malt barley PRO for September by $1/metric tonne from last month estimate.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada considers that the Chinese malting barley demand will go up by 20% by the 2010-11 crop year. AAFC remarks that Chinese beer demand increased 18% yearly in the past 27 years. In 2002 China over passed USA as the biggest beer producer in the world.
The USDA increased by 200,000 metric tonnes their projections on Chinese barley imports for 2005 from their August report. Their projections for China in 2005 are thus of 2 million metric tonnes.
The Australian harvest, while it has been increasing, is not off the fields yet. Any downgrading of the Australian crop will impact the world price, according to the report of South-West terminal marketing group.
According to the report Australians are offering 2 row malt barley at between $158 and $159 US per tonne. The Australian Barley Board is quoting higher prices than this but the trade sources feel that the Board would sell at lower levels.
The sources would say that nearby Danish 2 row malt barley is for sale at $160 US per tonne for nearby and $165 US per tonne for later positions basis 13.5% moisture loaded on a vessel in a Danish port.
The sources note that the Chinese are buying 2 row malt barley in the mid-$190 US per tonne landed in China. This would work out to a low $160 US per tonne price loaded on a vessel out of Vancouver.
The Canadian dollar rose against the US dollar and this makes Canadian products more expensive in US dollar terms. Some of the malting companies are relaxing some of their selecting standards which will increase the amount of selectable barley. How much far the companies will go in reducing their standards is yet to be seen.
The Canadian trade is sizing the Canadian malt barley pool at between 1.3 and 2 million metric tonnes.
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