Australia: Barley production is forecast by ABARE to be 6.6 mln tonnes in 2005-06

Widespread above average rainfall received in mid-June 2005 across eastern Australia and South Australia has improved the outlook for winter crop production in 2005-06, The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), the professionally independent government economic research agency, published on September 6, 2005.

Barley production is forecast by ABARE to increase marginally to 6.6 million tonnes in 2005-06, compared to 2004-05. The figure reflects an increase in the area sown but lower yields. Barley is a hardy broad acre crop that is less vulnerable to severe changes in seasonal conditions. With the late break to the season, an increased area was sown to barley in place of crops such as canola.

New South Wales:

The area planted to barley is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent to 660 000 hectares in 2005-06. The late break to the season contributed to the increased area sown to barley, as the planting opportunity for crops such as canola had finished when the rainfall arrived, and growers altered their planting programs to include more barley. While the area sown is estimated to increase, yields are forecast to be lower and barley production is forecast to fall by 23 per cent to 990 000 tonnes in 2005-06.

The prospect for winter crop production in New South Wales has improved with above average rainfall in many parts of New South Wales over the June–August period. Sufficient rainfall in mid-June enabled late plantings of winter cereals to occur. It is estimated that over half of the winter cereals were planted after the season breaking rainfall.

Victoria:

Area planted to barley is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent from plantings in 2004-05. Barley production is forecast to be 1.3 million tonnes in 2005-06, up 18 per cent from the previous season.

Significant rainfall in most of the major cropping districts in mid-June provided opportunities for late planting of wheat, barley and some pulses and has contributed to the improved production outlook for Victoria. However, seasonal conditions have generally been below average for crop development across the state since that time. Above average temperatures and below average rainfall has been a feature, with a number of cropping districts reporting low subsoil moisture. Average to above average rainfall is required throughout most of the cropping regions during spring to ensure that crops continue to develop.

Queensland:

Expectations for barley have improved considerably throughout the year, with production now forecast to increase by 25 per cent to 237 600 tonnes. While yields are forecast to be lower than the record levels achieved in 2004-05, they are not expected to fall as sharply as wheat yields. A higher proportion of Queensland’s barley crop has been planted in the western Downs/Maranoa regions where conditions have been average to above average.

In the second week of May, rain in the central and western cropping regions of Queensland provided adequate moisture for planting. Further rainfall was received in June across all cropping regions of Queensland and provided adequate planting rainfall in the northern, central and southern Downs.

Western Australia:

The area planted to barley in Western Australia is estimated to be one of the largest on record and 12 per cent higher than the area sown in 2004-05. With the larger area and forecast above average yield, barley production is forecast to be 2.3 million tonnes an increase of 205 000 tonnes from the previous season.

The 2005-06 winter cropping season in Western Australia had an excellent start, with above average rainfall in May allowing planting to occur on good soil moisture. However, July was the driest on record and crops in the northern and central regions began to suffer from moisture stress. Rainfall in mid-August was timely and saved crops that were suffering moisture stress. Rainfall is required in the remainder of the growing season for crops to reach their potential.


South Australia:

Barley production is forecast to increase marginally in 2005-06 to 1.8 million tonnes.

Winter weather in South Australia has generally been mild across the state, particularly in the latter half of July and August. Cooler temperatures and significant rainfall was a feature in all major cropping districts in mid to late June, with some districts recording their highest ever June rainfall. However, subsequent rainfall has been below average in many of the major cropping regions. Significant rainfall in mid to late June allowed sowing across South Australia to be completed by mid-July; however, this is outside the optimal planting time. It is estimated that around 30 per cent of the crop was dry sown.

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