Canada: Estimations on Canadian barley production and exports

According to the report of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released on September 1, the Canadian barley production is estimated to fall by 6% from 2004-05, due to lower yields and harvested area. Total supply, however, is projected to increase slightly as lower production is more than offset by higher carry-in stocks resulting from the large production of low-quality barley in 2004-05.

Exports are expected to rise by 25%, due to higher exportable supplies of malting quality barley and less competition in overseas feed barley markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to drop significantly to near normal level.

The off-Board feed barley price is forecast to rise slightly. Malting barley prices will be pressured by higher world production, with the CWB PRO for Special Select 2-Row down by C$6/t from 2004-05 to C$172/t.

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