China: Analysts` opinion on Chinese malting barley market

According to the forecasts of Chinese analysts the total barley crop will be of 3,1 Mill. tons, of which 1,6 Mill. of malting grades. Assuming another increase of the beer output by only 10 % (last year were almost 15 %), China would need 3,6 to 4,0 Mill tons of malting barley. This figure is calculated from a usage of 9 or 10 kilos of malt per HL of beer. Therefore barley imports should reach 2,0 to 2,4 Mill. tons. Imports in January/June of this year were 1,357 Mill. tons, up 35 % from a year ago, 830.000 tons came from Australia, 480.000 tons from Canada. It is estimated that also 150.000 tons of French barley have been sold and are on the way to China. European offers are US $ 195,- CIF for Esterel and 205,- CIF for spring barley. Some old crop Canadian barley with lower specifications sold below these levels, and Chinese buyers are rumoured to show interest in new crop Australian barley at or above the 200,- mark. Lower ocean freight rates put malting barley to China back into bulk vessels instead of containers.

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