USA: Barley acreage this year is the lowest since 1890

The latest USDA forecast for 2005 barley production was estimated at 243 million bushels (5.29 million metric tonnes), which represents an increase of 18 million bushels (0.39 million metric tonnes) over the previous USDA production estimate but down by 36 million bushels (0.78 million metric tonnes) from the 2004 barley crop, Farm & Ranch Guide published on July 21.

The planted barley acres in the U.S. are down 557,000 acres from last year and the lowest since barley planted acreage estimates began in 1926. The Economic Research Service (ERS) of the USDA estimates that 3.5 million acres of barley will be harvested this year, down 14 % from last year and the lowest since 1890.

Barley yields, according to the ERS, are forecast at a record 70 bushels per acre (1.52 metric tonnes), which is up from last month's trend-based projection of 63.6 bushels.

The ERS also released barley usage projections for the marketing year, which increased by five million bushels from last month's estimate, but is off by 23 million bushels from the actual disappearance in the 2003/2004 marketing year. The projected increase is in the feed and residual area, but even that figure is down 11 million bushels from the 2004/2005 marketing year.

Export figures were unchanged from last month, but down 7 million bushels (0.15 million metric tonnes) from the last marketing year. Ending stocks were placed at 129 million bushels (2.81 million metric tonnes), down from an earlier estimate of 130 million bushels (2.83 million metric tonnes). This figure, according to the ERS, further emphasizes the desire of the brewers to maintain stocks. The marketing year for barley is June 1 to May 31.

Taking these figures into account, the ERS estimates the prices received by farmers for barley in the current marketing year will average between $2.10 to $2.50 per bushel, compared to the actual average price of $2.48 reported for the 2004/2005 marketing year.

The report indicated the spread between malting barley and feed barley prices increased even though prices for both classes of barley were lower. During the 2004-05 marketing year the average spread was $1.08, compared to 79 cents in 2003-04 and 85 cents in 2002-03.

Foreign barley production is also expected to be lower this year, according to the ERS. The latest report shaved more than one million tons off the barley forecast, with 129 million tons now being forecast. The report said much of the EU-25 barley harvest has begun, with drought devastating the crop in Spain. However, production prospects have been boosted in Hungary and the Czech Republic due to timely rains. Excessive rains are expected to reduce barley prospects in both Romania and Canada, however increased plantings in the Ukraine and Kazakhstan have increased barley prospects in those areas.

A check of local elevator board prices on smallgrains.org showed a general trend of feed barley prices holding steady, while many locations listed malting barley prices that had declined about a nickel from two weeks ago.

Prices for feed barley ranged from a high of $1.46 per bushel to a low quote of $1.23. On the malting side, the high quote was $2.05 a bushel, with the low coming in at $1.68.

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