World: Global barley trade for 2005/2006

Global barley trade is projected to increase slightly, with stronger demand from Turkey and Morocco caused by smaller crop prospects. Both Canada and the EU-25 are expected to increase exports by 500,000 tons each. Canada's exports will likely recover in 2005/06 after being constrained by poor quality this year. The EU-25 is expected to benefit from less competition from Russia and Ukraine, because of reduced production.

U.S. barley exports are forecast down 150,000 tons to 300,000 tons due to a smaller production forecast.

EU barley exports are forecast to rebound by 0.5 million tons to 3.3 million due to less competition from the Black Sea region.

Barley exports from Ukraine and Russia are projected to drop by a combined 400,000 tons on account of smaller crop prospects.

Canada is expected to boost barley exports (mostly for malting) by 0.5 million tons to 1.8 million as crop quality is expected to return to normal. Oat exports are forecast at a 5-year high due to larger production and less EU competition.

Turkey barley imports are forecast up 250,000 tons to 400,000 resulting from a drop in production.

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