Europe: Barley crops and markets

The EU barley balance looks still manageable in comparison to the total intervention stock of 15 million tonnes, compared to 7.75 million tonnes wheat, 2.45 million tonnes rye and 1.5 million tonnes of maize. 6 million tonnes of the a.m. 15 million tonnes have not yet been accepted by the intervention authorities, of which 1.9 million tonnes in Hungary and 0.6 million tonnes in the Czech Rep. Intervention storage in these countries is insufficient, requested transfer cost to Germany and Belgium is not granted.

The French ONIC is pushing Brussels to act more aggressively in export markets. The Commission has not followed suit, as it does not want to upset its partners in WTO. If negotiations in HongKong in December end with a positive (compromise) result, the EU may have to give up export subsidies, reduce import taxes and even cut down domestic support. What does it mean for EU barley? In the short run possibly stricter intervention terms, but in the end a lower intervention price or no more intervention.

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