World: Barley crop forecast up by further 0.9 mln tonnes

RMI Analytics’ latest global barley production forecast is up by 0.9 mln tonnes, to a total of 151.4 mln.

The increase comes from Australia (+0.3), and EU27+UK (+0.1), plus the rest of the world (+0.5 mln tonnes) where China, India, and northern Africa have increased.

The experts said in their latest report the estimates for feed barley demand have increased to a small extent, based on a view feed barley is increasingly more competitive in feed rations (supported by corn prices which are higher despite a heavy supply situation).

From the higher crop’25 production, the selection rate for malting barley is higher than in crop’24, but remains less relevant due to weak beer and whisky demand for malt.

Ending stocks are certainly expanding in crop’25, a clear signal of comfortable supply.

The global balance remains strong regarding the availability of quality malting barley. However, until malt demand recovers, the feed grains market is expected to significantly influence the balance of global barley supply and demand.

Overall, global barley prices are trending slightly higher across most origins, with feed barley continuing to support the entire barley complex. Feed barley prices are converging, demonstrating the competitive nature as all regions press to engage in global trade, where demand does exist. For malting barley, demand is subdued while supply is plentiful, and harvest still progresses in key southern hemisphere areas. Malting barley prices in Canada are lower in an attempt to capture demand in a tough market.