USA: Michelob Ultra and Modelo Especial competing to be America's top-selling beer

Michelob Ultra and Modelo Especial are battling it out to be America's top-selling beer, Yahoo! Finance reported on October 31.

Modelo Especial has been the top-selling beer since it took the top spot from Bud Light in 2023. However, Michelob Ultra, launched in 2002, has taken the lead, based on volume sold, so far this year, parent company AB InBev said Thursday, Oct. 27.

Michelob Ultra is the top seller, based on volume, at bars and restaurants, and in retail stores such as supermarkets, drug stores and convenience stores, based on retail sales data over the last 52 weeks, the company said in a news release.

But Modelo Especial remains the top-selling beer by dollars spent, accounting for a 10% share of all beer sales, according to Constellation Brands, which distributes the beer in the U.S. market. Constellation distributes Modelo and Corona beers in the U.S., while AB InBev controls them in all other markets.

Who's right? That depends on how you look at it, says Dave Williams, president of Bump Williams Consulting of Shelton, Connecticut, which services the alcoholic beverage industry.

While Modelo Especial remains the No. 1 beer in terms of dollar sales, "Ultra has maintained an upward trajectory" as overall beer sales have dipped, Williams said. As Michelob Ultra's sales volume increases, it has closed the gap in terms of dollar sales, Williams told USA TODAY.

Michelob Ultra's success is a rebound for Anheuser-Busch, which saw Bud Light's momentum snapped by a consumer boycott launched in April 2023 over a marketing partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney.

Even as Modelo Especial took the top spot, Michelob Ultra was gaining ground. Michelob Ultra now has an average of 8% market share nationally, ABInBev CEO Michel Doukeris said during a conference call Thursday, Oct. 30, discussing the company's third quarter financials.

"The beer has less than 6% share of the industry in 20 states, so there remains significant opportunity for further expansion and growth," Doukeris said.

The competition crescendoes amid a challenging marketplace with total beer sales down 2.2% in the 52-week period ending Oct. 5, 2025, according to Circana, which tracks sales at grocery stores, drug stores, mass-market retailers, convenience stores and other retailers.

Neither AB InBev nor Constellation avoided slowdowns; they reported overall declines in beer volumes of 3.9% and 4%, respectively, during the last three months.

Modelo Especial typically costs a bit more than Michelob Ultra, so it remains ahead in dollar sales, "while the volume is much closer," Williams said. "Ultra is indeed gaining ground due to the fact that that brand is still eking out some slight GROWTH while Modelo continues to experience a slight decline, largely due to the ongoing pullback from Hispanic shoppers across the country," he said in an email exchange.

Constellation Brands President and CEO Bill Newlands was asked about the decline in sales – which began earlier this spring and coincided with the deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and subsequent raids – during the company's own earnings call on Oct. 7.

The company's survey data has found about 80% of consumers, Hispanic and non-Hispanic "continue to express concern about the socioeconomic environment we face. … We've got a consumer base that's pulling in a bit, and they are not engaging," Newlands said.

Meanwhile, AB InBev has another bright spot in terms of Michelob Ultra. It's new Michelob Ultra Zero, which launched in January, has become No. 2 in the growing category of non-alcoholic beer, which has seen 23% growth over the past year. "Non-alcohol beer is a key opportunity to develop new consumption occasions and increase participation," Doukeris said.