World: Better-than-anticipated wheat and barley yields boost the forecast for total grains

Better-than-anticipated wheat and barley yields have boosted the forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in the 2025-26 marketing year, according to the International Grain Council’s (IGC) most recent Grain Market Report, World-Grain.com reported.

The monthly report, released on Oct. 23, projected a 13-million-tonne increase from the September forecast to a record 2.425 billion tonnes. It is the third straight month that the IGC has increased its production outlook.

If realized, the IGC’s projected 98-million-tonne (4%) year-on-year increase in total grains production would be the sharpest since 2016-17. Wheat and corn are predicted to set production records in 2025-26, at 827 million and 1.297 billion tonnes, respectively.

“With only part of the increased supply channeled for consumption, pegged 5 million tonnes higher than (last month), at 2.4 million tonnes, the projection for global ending stocks is raised 12 million tonnes, month on month, to a three-year high of 618 million tonnes,” the IGC said.

Primarily because of an increase in wheat shipments, the outlook for total grains trade increased slightly from September to 440 million tonnes, the IGC said.

The Council trimmed its soybean production forecast by 1 million tonnes over the previous month, to 428 million. It also dropped consumption by 1 million tonnes to 430 million. However, it boosted its trade outlook by 2 million tonnes to a record 187 million “reflecting potentially firmer Asian demand.”

Rice production was cut by 2 million tonnes month on month, but the projected output of 542 million tonnes would still set a record, topping last year’s total of 541 million tonnes. The rice consumption and trade forecasts held steady at 540 million and 60 million tonnes, respectively, the IGC said.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index dropped to a five-year low, with wheat and rice export prices showing the biggest month-on-month decline. The overall index declined 1.7% month on month and is down more than 6% compared with 2024-25. The IGC noted that rice prices have declined by 31% year on year.