Australia: ABB Grain Ltd announced on April 13 it has increased its Victorian and South Australian barley pool indicators for 2005/06 by A$5/t, to A$185-195/t for malting 1 barley and A$145-155/t for feed 1 barley.
ABB Grain Ltd managing director, Michael Iwaniw, emphasised that these estimates were based on export prices, and that the east coast supply of grain and the domestic demand for feed grain would be major influences on prices as the season progressed.
Michael Iwaniw said that international barley prices were holding steady, and with the recent downturn in the $A/$US exchange rate the company was able to increase its estimated pool indicators for the new season. “Simply speaking, the higher the exchange rate, the less money received when the US sales price is converted back to Australian dollars,” Mr Iwaniw said.
“This is the major influence on grower returns at the moment, and with the exchange rate dropping to a lower level we anticipate a greater return to growers for their grain.
“Barley prices in US dollars are above historic averages, and have remained at reasonably high, stable levels for some time.
“However the high $US prices are not being reflected in the $A prices because of the high level the exchange rate has been sitting at. This demonstrates how much of an impact the exchange rate has on the sales price of grain, compared to what growers actually receive.”
Mr Iwaniw said that the while the movements of the exchange rate would be a crucial factor in the returns to growers this season, another key influence was the expected size of the northern hemisphere crop.
“Large crops are forecast in both eastern Europe and the European Union (EU), with growers experiencing favourable conditions. Buyers are holding off in the face of this expectation which is, and will continue to, put pressure on international prices.
“It’s still early days yet, and barley prices are certainly not set in stone. There are a number of other issues that can impact on pool returns between now and the time that the 2005/06 barley crop is fully marketed. “All we can do is reflect what the markets are indicating at this stage. We will keep growers informed throughout the season of further developments.”
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