Japan: Upward consumption trend forecast for Japan’s beer market over next decade

Driven by rising demand for beer in Japan, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.9 bln litres by the end of 2035, IndexBox said in their latest report.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.9B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

In 2024, approx. 1.6 bln litres of beer were consumed in Japan; with a decrease of -6.5% compared with 2023 figures. Over the last ten years (period under review), consumption saw an abrupt setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 8.1% against the previous year. Beer consumption peaked at 2.9 bln litres in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The value of the beer market in Japan reduced to $1.5 bln in 2024, waning by -7.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

In 2024, the amount of beer produced in Japan fell to 1.7 bln litres, dropping by -5.4% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a perceptible slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Beer production peaked at 2.9 bln litres in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum. In value terms, beer production dropped to $1.6B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a drastic downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 12%. Beer production peaked at $3.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2024, approx. 44 mln litres of beer were imported into Japan; increasing by 3.9% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 31%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 47 mln litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum. In value terms, beer imports reduced modestly to $67M mln in 2024. Overall, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $74 mln in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

China (11 mln litres), South Korea (10 mln litres) and Germany (5 mln litres) were the main suppliers of beer imports to Japan, together comprising 59% of total imports. From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +27.3%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. In value terms, the largest beer suppliers to Japan were South Korea ($12 mln), China ($11 mln) and Germany ($8 mln), with a combined 46% share of total imports. China, with a CAGR of +23.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average beer import price stood at $1.5 per litre in 2024, declining by -6.2% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $1.6 per litre in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($4 per litre), while the price for China ($972 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+9.8%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, shipments abroad of beer increased by 10% to 151 mln litres, rising for the fourth consecutive year after three years of decline. Over the period under review, exports recorded prominent growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 81%. The exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in years to come. In value terms, beer exports expanded rapidly to $139 mln in 2024. In general, exports enjoyed a resilient expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when exports increased by 56% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

South Korea (82 mln litres) was the main destination for beer exports from Japan, accounting for a 54% share of total exports. Moreover, beer exports to South Korea exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Taiwan (Chinese) (28 mln litres), threefold. China (15 mln litres) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 10% share. From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to South Korea stood at +11.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Taiwan (Chinese) (+14.6% per year) and China (+48.5% per year). In value terms, South Korea ($56 mln) remains the key foreign market for beer exports from Japan, comprising 40% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($25 mln), with an 18% share of total exports. It was followed by Taiwan (Chinese), with a 17% share. From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value to South Korea totaled +6.2%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (+52.9% per year) and Taiwan (Chinese) (+11.1% per year).

In 2024, the average beer export price amounted to $919 per thousand litres, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a pronounced downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $1.2 per litre in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum. Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($1.6 per litre), while the average price for exports to South Korea ($682 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China (+3.0%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.