World: Barley crop forecast reduced by 0.9 mln tonnes

RMI Analytics’ latest world barley crop’25 forecast is reduced by -0.9 mln tonnes to 144.2 mln tonnes, with reductions taking place in Canada (-0.5 mln) despite recent rains due to lower planted area and Russia (-0.2 mln tonnes) due to lower early yield results. The rest of the world is down -0.2 mln tonnes including the US, where hot weather has reduced yield potential slightly.

Overall, the analysts’ current view of crop’25 production is only 1.0 mln tonnes above crop’24, compared to being 2.3 mln tonnes higher in May’25. The six major barley regions are still showing a 2.1 mln tonnes increase in crop’25 over crop’24, which offers considerable stability to malting barley prices, since these key regions influence the world’s malting barley supply and demand to a very great extent.

The global malting barley picture for crop’25 has improved considerably as a result of meaningful rains falling in two key markets that needed moisture, Canada and Australia. Thus, the decline in global ending stocks remains very much irrelevant for malting barley’s global balance, especially under the current lack of growth in beer and whisky demand for malt.

Mixed impacts are prevailing across global malting barley prices, with French prices lower under harvest-related pressure, while the southern hemisphere and Canadian prices remain steady as harvests still lies ahead. Feed barley prices are being supported by the recent rains and the resulting interruption to European harvest (including the Black Sea region). With French, Danish, and UK 2RS harvest still lying ahead, the resumption of harvest is likely bearish for prices.

French malting barley prices have moved lower to align with the other key origins, which leaves all these key origins closely aligned in terms of pricing. In the limited demand environment currently prevailing, it is fair to expect competition will be intense going forward.