World: Barley market quiet as world awaits crop results in South America

A rather quiet period for the world’s barley supply and demand balance, as we await the results in South America, but still there is a small uptick in production forecast, +0.4 mln tonnes to 141.3 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their latest Journal.

Part of this increase (0.2 mln tonnes) comes from Australia’s crop results being validated as harvest advances, plus a gain of 0.2 mln tonnes from across the ‘Rest of the World’ in regions like Kazakhstan.

With beer volume sales slumping in 2024, there is no immediate relief to a general lack of malting barley demand, and with the seasonality reality that winter is coming, means a possible rebound is months away.

From a feed perspective, the global supply of grain is boosted by a big US corn crop amidst the on-going weakened economic situation.

With no meaningful demand coming soon from either industrial or feed channels, this small increase in supply passes through to ending stocks, which remain at a low level, over a 10-year horizon.

Selection rates for malting barley are improved in Denmark and Sweden, Germany and with good potential in Australia and Argentina. This offsets the poor crop result for French 6-row winter and leaves malting barley supply secure globally, although this requires another 4-6 weeks of good weather in the southern hemisphere.

The poor state of demand makes the tight balance sheet less relevant (for now), aided by generally favourable selection rates for malting barley, where any quality variability appears to be fully manageable.

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