World: Barley crop forecast reduced again and is now 1.7 mln tonnes down from crop 2023

Once again, the world’s barley balance sheet has tightened further, with a slight reduction (0.6 mln tonnes) in production, led by Australia (-0.5 mln tonnes) and Russia (-0.1 mln tonnes). This takes global production to 140.9 mln tonnes, down -1.7 mln from crop’23, and a whopping 12.1 mln less than crop’22, RMI Analytics said in their late October report.

Despite this gradually shrinking crop’24, concern about supply is limited, as the proportion of malting barley availability has improved. This leaves ample supply for 2025, under the current demand environment.

Ending stocks of barley are precariously at the lowest level in over ten years, and should any meaningful demand recovery take place, the market dynamic would shift materially from the current ‘comfortable’ mindset that prevails.

The gradual decline in global barley production continues, and although the balance sheet has tightened significantly, the availability of malting barley quality remains comfortable. Note as well, the global wheat balance sheet has also tightened, shaping up fierce competition for crop’25 area.

Global malting barley prices are mixed, up slightly in Europe, in EUR terms, but the strength in the USD is offsetting this uptick in prices. Slightly higher prices are found in Australia, and Argentina, while Canada is unchanged. Feed barley is more bullish, as the Black Sea’s involvement in world trade likely declines, following very brisk shipments from Ukraine and Russia, leading Russia to restrict further exports. While crop’23 is fading quickly into obscurity, the market’s focus turns fully to crop’24, although a bit of crop’23 trade action is in Argentina, as the last malting barley cargos are being covered.

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