Australia: Barley production estimate reduced on concerns around South Australia and western Victoria crops

Continued dryness in South Australia and the most western region of Victoria remains a concern, while Western Australia and New South Wales barley crops remain very good, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Until the end of the month, rain is forecast in Victoria and South Australia and although helpful, there is already a yield impact to the crop. Due to the concerns surrounding South Australia and western Victoria, RMI’s barley crop estimate is reduced by -0.3 mln tonnes to 12.3 mln.

Prices are steady on the east coast, and remain at a slight premium over other regions. In particular, Western Australia’s crop continues to look good with barley to offer and prices are down. The main risk is recent Chinese news about a pull-back on grain imports, on the basis that the aggressive import plan is having a negative impact on domestic grain markets. A reduction in barley imports by China would create a sizeable challenge.

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