North America: First barley harvest in Canada confirms lower yields and quality impacts, crop forecast reduced by 0.8 mln tonnes

Barley harvest in both the USA and Canada has been forced to work around persistent storms over the past two weeks but there is clearing forecast over the next 7-10 days which should allow barley harvest to progress in a meaningful way, RMI Analytics said in their early September report.

The first 30-40% of Canadian barley harvest has confirmed lower yields and quality impacts (lower test weights) from the earlier heatwave and dry conditions. RMI’s barley crop estimate for Canada is reduced by 0.8 mln tonnes to 8.5 mln tonnes. Note: StatsCan’s crop estimate is quite low at 7.5 mln tonnes.

The US harvest is 50-60% complete, running ~10% behind the 5-Yr average and with a crop estimate unchanged at 3.3 mln tonnes. The combined US & Canada production falls to 11.8 mln tonnes, further tightening the North American barley supply & demand balance.
With the news coming from the early harvest resulting being rather disappointing, prices for both malting and feed are steady, up slightly for Crop’24. China announced an anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola exports in response to a Canadian tariff on Chinese EV vehicle imports (speculation is whether this dispute could expand to barley).

While prices remain stable, the smaller crop result likely means further downside for prices is limited as well. Domestic feed barley prices are unchanged. Maltsters and cattle feeders must now deal with a crop of variable quality, such as light test weights, a wide range of protein and smaller kernel sizing.

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