EU & UK: Barley crop forecast unchanged as harvest is wrapping up

Although there has been further rain the past two weeks, clouds are starting to clear, which will be beneficial to wrapping up barley harvest in the EU. One watch-out is the very north of England and Scotland which it is very wet, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The analysts’ production estimate for EU27+UK is unchanged at 58.0 mln tonnes. In general there is an ‘OK’ crop result in Germany, Denmark, and southern England which is very positive, especially given the disappointing result in France (winter barley in particular).

European export levels have already shifted downward, as the lower yields in France reduced the exportable surplus. A reduced level of exports definitely supports the ability of the malt supply chain to select through variable quality (e.g. proteins). With a return to normal quality in Scandinavia, and a reasonable outcome in Germany, the European market is in good shape.

French Creil prices for both 2RS and 6RW are steady to down slightly; Mosel 2RS Crop’24 is up slightly, and stronger for Crop’25 while 6RW is down slightly similar to Creil. Over the past two weeks, these barley markets have traded at lower levels, but now with wheat markets firming, barley prices have turned upward. Some French cooperatives are buying back earlier sales, which is adding further support to malting markets. Malting premiums remain very wide in France, helping the trade select all possible quality.

In both the UK and Denmark, Crop’24 prices are firming, while Crop’25 is slightly lower. Protein levels increased as harvest progressed, leaving traders more comfortable to sell 9.5% minimum protein guarantees. Both the UK and Denmark origins are competitive for malting barley supply into continental maltings.

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