Russia: Wheat production forecast up, barley and maize estimates down in Russia

SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production forecast and lowered estimates for barley and maize, APK-Inform reported on August 21.

‘The increase in the wheat crop estimate mainly reflects expectations of high, near-record yields in Siberia and the Urals. Although wet weather in these regions could complicate harvesting and potentially reduce quality, the proportion of unharvested area at the end of the campaign is expected to be close to average,’ the analysts explained.

At the same time, the forecast for the total grain harvest in Russia this year was lowered to 128.4 million tonnes from 130.5 million tonnes due to a lower forecast for the barley and maize crops.

"The barley crop estimate was lowered to 18.2 million tonnes from 19.3 million tonnes due to reduced sown areas and low yields in southern regions. The maize crop forecast has been reduced to 11.9 million tonnes from 13.4 million tonnes due to extremely adverse weather conditions in the south. The initial yield in Krasnodar region (3.5 tonnes/ha) is close to the record low,” the report says.

Thus, the corn harvest in Russia in 2024, according to experts, may decline to the lowest figure since 2018, when 11.4 million tonnes of grain were harvested.

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