Argentina: Barley crop forecast unchanged at 5 mln tonnes

The moisture situation across Buenos Aires Province has improved, and more rain is forecast this week. Cool temperatures over the past month did not cause any frost damage, but has led to a more shallow early root development. As warmer temperatures arrive, the root development is expected to catch-up, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Barley crop ratings are 84% Good & Excellent, which puts the crop on a positive path at this early stage and RMI’s barley crop’24 production estimate for Argentina remains at 5.0 mln tonnes due to this positive crop view.

In a very quiet market, prices continue to drift lower, as buyers’ price ideas remain at lower levels and an absence of farmer selling creates a continued liquidity vacuum. There is more price weakness in Feed/FAQ barley as the likelihood for China to continue high volumes of Argentine barley are reduced, due to Australia re-taking a majority market position. The main reason farmers are unwilling to sell, centres upon the expectation the Government will unify exchange rates (official/unofficial) and also reduce or eliminate export taxes. This leaves ~2.0 mln tonnes of crop’23 unsold/unpriced, along with ~4.5 mln of crop’24. Eventually, this barley must come to market, and potentially is bearish, depending on the timing. Without malting demand, increased feed markets (e.g. Saudi) would be targeted, the analysts said.

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