Canada: Barley supply down 8% y-o-y in 2023-24

For 2023-24, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.7 million tonnes (Mt), down 8% year-over-year and 6% below the previous five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their July report.

Total domestic demand is forecast at 5.9 Mt, down slightly year-over-year and 4% below the average, primarily due to smaller feed use.

Exports were brisk in June, pushing the forecast for the entire crop year to 3.13 Mt (2.35 Mt for grain exports and 0.78 Mt for product exports). Nevertheless, exports in 2023-24 are down noticeably from last year and the average. The largest destination for raw barley grain is China (accounting for 84% of the exports), followed by the US (10%), and Japan (7%). The major destinations for Canadian malt barley have been the US (57%), Japan (22%), Mexico (14%), and South Korea (4%).

Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.65 Mt, down from 2022-23’s 0.7 Mt and the average of 0.8 Mt; if realized, this will the second-lowest stocks ever.

The feed barley cash price in the Lethbridge, Alberta, feedlot region experienced a decline in June, averaging approximately C$286/tonne (/t). The crop year-to-date average was slightly below C$315/t, over C$100/t lower than that last year. For the entire crop year, the average price is forecast at C$310/t, lower than the C$417/t for 2022-23 and the lowest in three years.

Worldwide, the July United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report shows a marginal year-over-year increase in world ending stocks for 2023-24, as the reduction in supply is expected to be offset by a decline in demand. Pegged at 21 Mt, the 2023-24 ending stocks are also slightly higher than the previous five-year average.

For 2024-25, Canadian farmers actually seeded less barley than they had planned before the start of the growing season, likely because softening barley prices changed Prairie farmers’ intentions.

According to the recent survey results from Statistics Canada (STC), only 2,584 thousand hectares (Kha) of Canadian farmland was seeded to barley in 2024. This is 303 Kha (10%) lower than what was reported in the March intention report, 378 Kha (13%) lower than last year and 463 Kha (15%) lower than the previous five-year average, also the third lowest on record. Of the total area, about 97% is in Western Canada with Alberta the largest barley-growing province followed by Saskatchewan.

Canadian barley production is projected at 8.5 Mt. Due to the sharp decline in seeded area, although assuming a return to normal yields, the 2024 production would be 4% lower than last year’s drought-affected production and 9% below average.

Supply is projected at 9.2 Mt, down 5% year-over-year and 2% above average, primarily due to expected decreases in production and carry-in stocks.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall due to decreased supply, which is expected to put pressure on domestic feed use. Similarly, exports are projected to drop.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.6 Mt, down from the previous year and average, which, if realized, will be second lowest on record.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast at C$290/t, down C$20/t year-over-year and the lowest level in five years.

Worldwide, the USDA has predicted a recovery in global barley production for 2024-25. Total demand in 2024-25 is projected to increase, with expectations for stronger feed consumption and a relatively stable food, seed, and industrial use (FSI).

Ending stocks are projected to shrink significantly year-over-year to a historical low of 18 Mt, with ending stocks in the key barley-exporting countries and regions, except the EU, expected to fall sharply year-over-year and be significantly below the previous five-year average.

E-malt.com, the global information source for the brewing and malting industry professionals. The bi-weekly E-malt.com Newsletters feature latest industry news, statistics in graphs and tables, world barley and malt prices, and other relevant information. Click here to get full access to E-malt.com. If you are a Castle Malting client, you can get free access to E-malt.com website and publications. Contact us for more information at marketing@castlemalting.com .