Argentina: Barley crop forecast unchanged at 5 mln tonnes

With Argentina’s soybean harvest complete, the path is clear for barley seeding to proceed and is estimated at 80% complete amidst further beneficial rains. For the time, being the crop is being started with an improved moisture situation, but further in-season rain is a necessity, RMI Analytics said in their early July report.

The recent cooler temperatures are a frost risk and may also lead to a slower than normal early crop emergence. All things considered, RMI’s barley crop’24 forecast for Argentina is unchanged at 5.0 mln tonnes under the good start to the crop and should result in a slight increase over crop’23.

Exports are expected to drop slightly during crop’24, due to the increased battle in global markets where Argentina has slipped to #2 position in tonnes imported by China. Australia has assumed top importer position, and with a freight advantage, Argentina faces a battle to maintain volumes and market share in China.

Argentina’s arley prices are down for crop’24 as crop conditions look good locally and as Canada/Australian prices drop. Even though seeding is advancing toward a conclusion farmer selling is virtually zero. The on-going macroeconomic challenges (e.g. formal and informal currency calculations) make farmer selling nearly impossible and despite higher crop’23 prices being offered. There is demand in the market for old crop (China and Colombia), and new crop (Peru, Ecuador, and South Africa) but sellers are challenged by the low liquidity from farmers.

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