Canada: Barley crop forecast slightly reduced to 9.8 mln tonnes

Conditions over the past month have been nearly ideal for barley crop development in Canada with widespread, moderate rainfall, plus slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Stats Canada’s recent farmer survey indicated a greater than expected reduction in barley area but may be slightly overstated. Still, RMI Analytics’ crop estimate for Canada is reduced slightly to 9.8 mln tonnes, the analysts said in their latest report published on July 11.

Export pace has picked up slightly over the past month and RMI’s crop’23 export forecast is increased from 2.1 mln to 2.5 mln tonnes. For crop’24, exports are expected to remain steady as competition is to remain fierce globally. US corn imports continue to reduce local farmer selling opportunities for feed barley.

Both malting and feed barley prices are lower in Canada, driven by improving crop conditions which are raising the prospects for malting barley production in crop’24. The decline in US imported corn prices is placing pressure on domestic feed barley prices, as farmers have some crop’23 still to sell and now a much improved prospect for crop’24. Canada’s ability to compete in global trade has improved as a result.

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