EU: Soft wheat, barley crop forecasts lowered as harvesting gets underway

Strategie Grains lowered its monthly forecast for this year’s soft wheat crop in the European Union, confirming its expectation for a four-year low in production as harvesting gets underway.

The consultancy now sees 2024/25 soft wheat production in the 27-country bloc at 121.8 million metric tons, 1.7 million tons less than it projected in May.

The consultancy’s latest projection is 3.6 per cent below last year’s output and would be the lowest since 2020/21 when the crop was also affected by heavy rain during the growing season.

In a summary of its monthly cereal report, Strategie Grains did not give reasons for its downward revision to the forecast, but said it anticipated France would see the biggest year-on-year decline in production followed by Germany, Poland and Hungary to a lesser extent.

In France, the EU’s top grain producer, torrential rain cut soft wheat sowing by more than seven per cent.

The consultancy also lowered its outlook for this year’s EU barley crop to 52.2 million tons from 53.0 million last month, though this would still be 10 per cent above last year’s drought-hit crop of 47.5 million tons.

Wheat and barley harvesting started this month in southern Europe, with mixed yield indications so far, Strategie Grains said.

In Spain, which is recovering from severe drought last year, first yield results in the south were good but levels are expected to decline as the harvest moves north, it said.

Yield results so far in Romania were contrasting, close to average in Slovenia and Croatia, while disappointing in northern Italy, it added.

The smaller expected EU harvest, coupled with an anticipated drop in Black Sea supply, should sharply cut stocks in the bloc from a high level this season to a “rather fragile” level in 2024/25, the consultancy said.

Weather-hit harvest prospects in Russia and to a lesser extent Ukraine led Strategie Grains to cut its forecast for world soft wheat production for 2024/25 by almost 10 million tons to 713.3 million tons, putting production below this season’s 719.9 million tons.

Strategie Grains trimmed its outlook for this year’s EU maize harvest to 62.6 million tons from 63.3 million, now stable with last year’s level.

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