Australia: Reduced barley stocks threaten Australia’s position as top exporter
Australia is the world’s leading barley exporter for TY 2023/24, but a decline in production has led to reduced stocks and threatens Australia’s position as the top supplier, USDA said in their June report.
China is the world’s largest importer of barley, and the European Union should be well positioned to gain market share in China from Australia in 2024/25.
From 2020/21 to 2021/22, Australia production jumped on increased yields, leading to consecutive years of record exports exceeding 8 million tons. In May 2020, however, China imposed anti-dumping duties on Australian barley.
After the loss of its top market, Australia only partially diverted exports, resulting in rising stocks. Despite a near 20-percent decline in area, favorable weather and yields also
contributed to the large accumulation of stocks.
Production in 2023/24 declined as Australia experienced a drop in yields from adverse El Niño weather impacts. Additionally, China demand for Australian barley spiked and stocks depleted following the August 2023 removal of duties. With low carrying stocks for 2024/25, much of Australia’s production will be needed for its domestic market. Consequentially, exports are forecast at a 5-year low of 6.0 million tons.
As an exporter comprising 33 percent of China barley imports in 2022/23, the European Union has the potential to backfill the loss in the barley market left by Australia.
EU production for 2024/25 is forecast at 53.8 million tons, a 4-year high. Additionally, exports are forecast to increase 12 percent year over year to 7.3 million tons.
China uses barley for malting and feed, and imports increased over 40 percent from 2022/23 to 2023/24. Despite a lower import forecast for 2024/25, large supplies are required to meet China’s barley demands and the European Union is in the strongest position to emerge as the top exporter to satisfy this market.
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