World: Barley crop forecast reduced by 0.1 mln tonnes
RMI Analytics’ barley crop 2024 forecast is reduced by 0.1 mln tonnes to 148.7 mln, led by declines in Russia and Ukraine but mostly offset by better European and Canadian crops.
Late crops are expected in Europe (3 weeks delayed in France) which is not ideal, but recent warmer temperatures and further rain have been beneficial to crop development.
Canada has received much needed rain and conditions in Argentina are good as farmers begin to plant.
The Australian crop is fully planted but in very difficult conditions in certain key areas which bears a close watch.
Barley crop development globally, although facing challenges like lateness in Europe, is on a good overall path. The next 4-6 weeks are critical to maintaining this positive direction, and a rebound in malting barley quality is expected.
Price volatility has returned yet again, this time from an external bullish market influence coming from the wheat market. The impact is higher barley prices in all key regions, with the move upward being led by French prices where the crop lateness is a fundamental concern.
Trade activity in crop 2023 is mostly over in Europe (market no defined), while Argentina and Australia have considerable crop 2023 to sell/ship over the upcoming months. Buyers are still looking to bid at lower levels but the willingness from sellers to trade is extremely limited.
Feed barley prices are up more than malting barley, due to the leading role the Black Sea plays in feed barley markets. This has brought other regions back into a competitive position for feed trade (e.g. into Saudi Arabia), the RMI analysts said.
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