Australia: Barley crop forecast up 0.4 mln tonnes from crop 2023

Although additional rainfall has not been widespread in Australia, any incremental moisture further improves the good early start in the east where seeding is starting to ramp up, RMI Analytics said in its late April report.

While eastern Australia looks good, Western Australia and part of South Australia are dry, which is common, and in-season rain is needed, which is normal.

RMI Analytics’ barley crop forecast for Australia is unchanged at 11.6 mln tonnes, an increase of 0.4 mln tonnes from crop 2023. This higher production is necessary, due to the resumption of heavy exports to China and reduces further ending stocks.

Barley prices are up across the board, as farmers begin to advance crop 2024 planting, and as a result interest in selling has dropped significantly. At the same time, Chinese demand remains present, but bids are at much lower levels, which leads to an impasse in trade activity. For now, farmers are focused on seeding, and with the dry conditions in certain regions there is less motivation to aggressively sell barley (malting in particular) at this stage.
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