Ukraine: Demand for Ukrainian barley continues to decrease
World demand for barley remains quite low, especially against the background of forecasts of increased production in the new season, so hopes for increased barley exports from Ukraine at the end of the season may not come true. In addition, Australia and Argentina increased barley deliveries to the world market, UkrAgroConsult reported on April 5.
China’s active purchase of Ukrainian barley in February and March led to an increase in purchase prices to increase exports. In March 2024, Ukraine exported 339,000 tons of barley, which is one of the highest monthly indicators of this season. In total, 1.963 million tons of barley were exported in 2023/24 MR, out of the 2.1 million tons predicted by the USDA, while last year 2.27 million tons were shipped on April 1. Analysts believe that in April-May, Ukraine will be able to export another 200-300 thousand t of barley due to increased demand from Turkey and EU countries against the background of low prices.
Prices for feed barley for delivery to Black Sea ports fell to $145-150/t or UAH 6,100-6,200/t compared to UAH 6,400-6,800/t in February, while prices for feed wheat, which is being bought by a much larger number of traders, reach 6700-6800 UAH/t. Processors offer 5,500-5,800 hryvnias/t for barley with delivery to the factory, as they have sufficient stocks of raw materials.
The demand for malting barley in Ukraine is also decreasing, as malting plants have accumulated the necessary volumes of raw materials until the end of the season and lowered prices to UAH 6,200-6,500/t with delivery to the factory, although at the beginning of the season prices reached UAH 8,000-8,500/t.
According to UGA estimates, due to the low profitability of growing both fodder and brewing barley, the total production of barley in Ukraine in 2024 may decrease compared to the previous year from 5.8 to 4.6 million tons, and export – from 2.5 to 2 million tons
The recovery of EU barley production, especially malting barley, will reduce the demand for Ukrainian supplies of malting barley and malt, and the reduction in global beer demand will continue to lower barley prices.
According to the forecast of the European Commission, in the 2024/25 MY, EU countries will increase barley production by 13% to 53.7 million tons compared to the current season, and its export by 8.5% to 10.3 million tons.
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