Argentina: Barley crop 2204/25 forecast at 4.3 mln tonnes on strong competition for area planted with wheat
Heavy rain has fallen across Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil. Although this may negatively impact corn and soy crops which are nearing harvest, these rains have made dramatic improvements in soil moisture conditions for winter crops, including wheat and barley, RMI Analytics said in their March report.
The 2024/25 barley crop forecast is 4.3 mln tonnes and is 0.5 mln tonnes below crop 2023 as strong competition for planned area from wheat is expected. Further, farmers have questions about the export potential for barley, as China’s shift to sourcing again from Australia remains a concern.
Monthly consumer prices in Argentina have declined to 13.2% in February, showing double-digit monthly inflation, and are lower than the anticipated 15% estimate.
FOB prices are down slightly in a quiet market, but some Chinese demand has been shown in the market. With a lack of farmer selling, traders are unable to sell aggressively at the lower bid levels showed by buyers at the moment. Farmer selling of barley remains well below the year ago levels, but sunflower and corn harvests will begin very soon, which may trigger barley selling as farmers may want to avoid having too much unsold physical commodities.
Local farmer FAS prices are unchanged, but still remain well below profitable levels, driven by input costs which still remain very high. A further peso devaluation is rumoured, along with a possible end/decrease to the import tax on crop inputs (e.g. fertilizer) which would be beneficial for farmers.
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