Australia: Barley crop forecast for 2024/25 slightly down to 10.9 mln tonnes

After a troubling finish to crop 2023 harvest, rain has continued to fall across most key agricultural regions of Australia and continues to improve the soil moisture situation, as focus turns toward crop 2024, RMI Analytics said in their latest report earlier this month.

The analysts’ production forecast for 2024/25 is down slightly to 10.9 mln tonnes, with competition from other crops. The better moisture conditions may help wheat slightly over barley and weaker malt demand in South-East Asia is backing up malting barley movement domestically. The end result is farmers have a number of factors to consider regarding 2024 planting decisions. As a positive, ending stocks are to decline as weak domestic demand is overshadowed by Chinese exports.

Shipments to China have restarted at a torrid pace and the shipment data is impressive with an amazing 2.5 mln tonnes shipped in Q3 2023 alone (1.7 mln tonnes of feed barley and 0.8 mln tonnes of malting). January was nearly 1 mln tonnes, keeping the strong pace and now nearly 80% of China’s total barley imports are from Australia, and a remarkable turnaround from zero tonnes during the tariff.

The mix of strong exports coupled with weak local demand is leaving prices mostly flat. China has reportedly been back in the market for feed barley, showing a continuation of strong shipments (different from wheat where China is cancelling or deferring volumes). Domestic feed demand has appeared but with little barley offered. Western Australia and South Australia have led exports so far (80%), making Victoria more likely to pick up more of future trade. Canada is showing more competitive offers for China’s business, and like Argentina, a weaker local demand situation raises need for more exports.

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