Canada: 2023-24 barley production estimated at 8.9 mln tonnes

For 2023-24, Canadian barley production is estimated at 8.9 million tonnes (Mt) by Statistics Canada (STC) in its December survey-based yield and production estimates report. The survey-based result is more than 1.0 Mt (13%) higher than the September model-based estimate, primarily reflecting larger-than-expected output in the Prairies, as a result of better-than-expected yields and higher-thanexpected harvested area. Production estimates for Ontario and British Columbia were also revised higher. Alternatively, the Atlantic provinces and Quebec experienced a decline compared to the September estimates due to lower-than-expected yields and harvested area. Despite the upward revision, Canadian barley production is down 11% year-over-year (y/y) and 4% below the previous fiveyear average, mainly reflecting notable output declines in Alberta and Saskatchewan, as a result of significantly reduced yields.

Supply for 2023-24 is estimated at 9.7 Mt, down 8% from 2022-23 and 6% below the five-year average, largely due to production issues this year. Total demand is expected to decline y/y, reflecting weaker export prospects, while remaining stable for domestic feed consumption. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.75 Mt, up by 6% y/y and in line with the five-year average.

For the first three months (August – October) of the current crop year, Canada exported 396 thousand tonnes (Kt) of barley, according to the monthly trade data from STC. This volume is significantly lower than those in the same period of the past three years, and below the previous five-year average. The main destination was China, accounting for more than 85% of the volume. The majority of the remaining exports went to the US. Malt exports remained relatively stable at 48 Kt per month, which is 19% and 7% above the levels from last year and the five-year average, respectively. The major destinations have been the US, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea.

The Lethbridge barley price weakened throughout November and settled below C$330/tonne (t) in the week ending December 1, approaching the lowest in more than two years. The weakness was mainly related to the large amount of competitively priced US corn imports and weak exports. For 2023-24, the average Lethbridge barley price is projected at C$340/t, lower than the highs seen in the previous two years. Nevertheless, this level remains historically high.

Worldwide, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) December supply and demand report shows improved 2023 barley production in Australia and the EU, with the export outlook unchanged. However, barley supplies and exports from Australia and the EU in 2023-24 are expected to be the lowest in recent years.

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