World: World barley trade, crop forecasts increased for 2023/24

World’s barley trade in 2023/24 is forecast at 27.547 mln tonnes this month, up from 26.946 mln tonnes forecast in November but still well below the 30.363 mln forecast for 2022/23, USDA said in its December report.

Export forecasts are up for Australia (5.5 mln tonnes vs. 5.2 mln forecast last month and compared to 7.084 mln forecast for 2022/23) and Canada (2.6 vs. 2.3 and 2.899 mln tonnes, respectively). Import forecast is up for China (8.1 mln tonnes vs. 7.5 mln forecast for 2023/24 in November and 8.582 mln forecast for 2022/23).

Global barley production is seen at 143.59 mln tonnes (142.284 mln in the November report, 151.521 mln forecast for 2022/23) with 2023/24 crop estimates up for the EU (48.475 mln tonnes vs. 48.35 mln in November), Australia (10 mln vs. 9.7 mln) and Canada (8.896 mln vs. 8 mln tonnes).

Total barley consumption in 2023/24 could reach 145.33 mln tonnes (144.557 mln tonnes in the November forecast, 149.905 mln tonnes forecast for 2022/23) and ending stocks – 18.104 mln tonnes (18.102 and 19.844 mln tonnes, respectively).

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