Canada: Canadian barley production 2023-24 estimated at 7.84 mln tonnes

For 2023-24, Canadian barley production is estimated at 7.84 million tonnes (Mt) by Statistics Canada (STC) according to its September 14, 2023, model-based yield and production estimates report. This implies a decrease of 21% year-over-year (y/y) and 16% above from the previous five-year average, primarily reflecting significant declines in yield estimates. Nevertheless, the Prairies provincial governments’ final crop reports for the 2023 growing season indicated better than expected yields, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its November report.

Details of 2023 barley yields in the Prairie provinces are as follows, with provincial government estimates outside the brackets and STC’s estimates followed by five-year averages in the brackets: Alberta 3.30 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) (3.28 t/ha, 3.62 t/ha), Saskatchewan 2.99 t/ha (2.42 t/ha, 3.22 t/ha), and Manitoba 4.04 t/ha (3.44 t/ha, 3.89 t/ha).

The Prairies provincial governments also reported generally good quality. For Alberta, barley is estimated at 26.2% malt grade. For Saskatchewan, the majority of the crops are above the 10-year average for quality and are in the top two categories. For Manitoba, the quality of the barley crop is good.

Despite an expected increase in carry-in stocks and imports, the significant decline in production will lead to a total supply of only 8.8 million tonnes (Mt) for 2023-24, down sharply from last year and the average, and the second lowest on record. Total demand is predicted to decrease y/y, linked to lower feed use and exports, and a smaller supply. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.55 Mt, near the historical low set in 2021-22.

For the current crop year to-date, Canada exported 0.59 Mt of barley, according to the weekly statistics from the Canadian Grain Commission. This volume is significantly lower than those in the same period last year and the year before, and below the previous five-year average. So far for the current crop year, the largest destination for Canadian barley exports was China, followed by the US. Malt exports remained relatively stable, according to the monthly trade data from Statistics Canada. The major destinations have been the US, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$350/t, lower than the historical highs seen in the previous two years, primarily under pressure from lower 2023-24 US corn prices and slow exports. Nevertheless, this level remains considerably above the five-year average.

World barley production for 2023-24 was estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 142 Mt, up slightly from the October estimate, but remaining down significantly from the 2022-23 and average levels. Among the major barley exporters, the USDA raised its production estimates for Russia and Ukraine, lowered these for Argentina and the EU, and kept Australia’s unchanged when compared to the October estimates. Global demand will decline to the lowest level in five years due to lower feed use, despite increased food and industrial consumption. Ending stocks will fall to a historical low.

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