Australia: Increase in barley receipts boost production forecast to 11.19 mln tonnes

Barley harvest is progressing in Australia into more southern growing regions under mostly good conditions and a mostly clear forecast for the next weeks, RMI Analytics said in their early November report.

An increase in barley receipts occurring across Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia (New South Wales is complete) with overall good results and positive selection rates for malting barley quality. With the crop outcome looking positive, the analysts’ crop estimate is raised to 11.19 mln tonnes, up 0.2 mln tonnes from last month. The export shipment estimate is unchanged for now but a strong pace of shipments (650 thousand tonnes in September, of which 377 thousand to China) may slightly increase total export.

With harvest advancing at a normal to slightly faster pace, the barley market is weaker. Prices remain the most competitive globally for malting barley, and Australia’s freight advantage into Asia supports feed/FAQ exports. The feed market in Queensland is being supplied by local and southern (New South Wales) origins with transshipment vessels from South Australia and Western Australia stopped for the moment. The drought impacts in northern New South Wales could mean vessel transfers restart at some stage.