World: Barley production forecast slightly higher at 140.8 mln tonnes

World barley production forecast for 2023-24 is slightly higher in RMI Analytics’ early November report, at 140.8 mln tonnes, up 0.3 mln from the late October forecast.

The main changes are slight improvements in yield outcomes from the completed Canadian crop and improved expectations in Australia. Argentina crop development remains positive but there have been isolated reports of frost events, which will have some minor yield impacts.

Although global barley production is 11.3 mln tonnes below crop 2022 levels, there is a current expectation that sufficient malting barley quality will be secured for the lower demand crop 2023 needs. Note: Argentina and Australia need to deliver a fair, average crop outcome, the analysts said.

With 2023 world barley production being the second-lowest over a 10-year horizon, the supply and demand is toward the tighter side. With some quality challenges experienced in northern Europe the selectable malting barley proportion of the crop is lower than normal. For the time being, there is limited risk to end-users fulfilling their needs, especially under a continuing weak demand picture.

After a price jump in late October, there has been a retracing of malting barley prices. Prices have given back much of the increase seen last month. Malting barley premiums remain historically wide in France (and Canada), triggered by a tighter availability of 2RS barley in those regions. premiums are lower in Australia and Argentina where crop potential for malting barley remains high (potentially very good in Australia from early harvest reports).

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