World: Craft beer market forecast to grow despite current difficulties

A recent market research outlined an interesting growth potential for the global craft brewing industry, from a current retail value of EUR97 bln to EUR267 bln by 2032 for an average growth rate of 10.6% between 2023 and 2032, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

This valuation includes the tourism-related activities, such as brewery tours, beer tastings and special events which all add to the local economic contribution of the craft industry to local economies. Craft beer is by nature a very local option for beer-loving consumers.

At the same time, major brewers continue to focus on premiumization and an expansion of global brand opportunities. As an example, Heineken’s flagship brand continues to experience strong growth with volumes expanding an amazing 41.9% from 2018 (38.7 mln hl) to 2022 (54.9 mln hl). Similar success is being made by brewers such as AB InBev, Carlsberg, and Constellation Brands (in the USA), with expansions outside their home markets.

Going forward, it seems too good to be true that both considerable growth forecast for craft brewing is attained, while also continued success for global brands is maintained, RMI Analytics said. Rather, one of these two trends is likely to prevail and leaves a question as to who wins this beer race between local and global brands?

Global brands provide consumers with premium brand with a special brand experience (including a certain status associated) linked to the heritage of the brand, for example, the Corona brand provides a uniquely Mexican beer experience. However, these global brands face a challenge going forward from the sustainability perspective, as these global brands tend to have a much longer supply chain as compared to ‘local’ brands. This could be a considerable challenge for major brewers as consumers focus increasingly on the sustainability of the products they consume. At the same time, global brands are part of massive distribution networks which provide far greater access to consumers than is feasible for smaller brewers and this remains a powerful tool for major brewers.

Meanwhile, the local nature of craft brewing which experienced prolonged success in the USA for over twenty years leading up to the pandemic in 2020 is continuing to grow globally. Success stories include such places as Equador, where over 240 craft brewers are now registered and producing over 6 mln litres of beer, with annual growth between 17-20%.

The forecast for a nearly 3x growth in global craft beer seems hard to fathom in the current difficult market environment, but if we take a longer-term perspective, the brewing innovation with distinct beer styles and flavours from the craft industry could deliver this optimistic forecast, RMI Analytics believe.

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