Canada: Barley crop forecast slightly up to 8 mln tonnes

RMI Analytics said in their latest report their barley crop estimate for Canada is raised slightly to 8 mln tonnes, with final harvest results in place in terms of quality and yields.

Harvest pace was quicker than normal in Alberta and in Saskatchewan, ahead of the 10-year average. Reports indicate malting barley quality is overall good, with some variability, with an overall selection rate of 30% which is down from 40% in 2022. From a crop of 8 mln tonnes, a 30% selection rate provides 2.4 mln tonnes of selectable malting barley, which is with a weak domestic demand and a highly competitive export markets leaves the supply situation comfortable.

The Canadian Grain Commission provided an early summary view for crop 2023. Surprisingly, there is a lower average protein in crop 2023 versus crop 2022 but still remains above the longer-term average. Test weights are lower, similar to the drought year of 2021 and 2014, a direct link to the dry conditions during the growing season. In total, maltsters and North America brewers have sufficient barley available, the analysts said.

Prices are steady in a very quiet market, with malting barley more or less aligned with French prices, and therefore remain well above other origins. The export of feed barley competitively in global markets remains difficult due to strong domestic feed prices. Imported US corn is around USD15/tonne cheaper than barley, pressuring feed barley prices slightly.

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