Canada: 2022-23 barley supply up 33% y/y

For 2022-23, Canada’s supply of barley stood at 10.6 million tonnes (Mt), up 33% year-over-year (y/y), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its October report.

Total domestic demand, of which about 94% was for animal feed, sat at 6.0 Mt, up 27% y/y but down 3% from the five-year average.

Total exports, including grain exports and product exports (grain equivalent), amounted to 3.9 Mt, up sharply from the previous year’s low, also the second highest (after 4.3 Mt in 2020-21) in nearly three decades. The primary importers included China, the US, Japan, and Mexico. Carry-out stocks were 0.7 Mt, rising sharply from the prior year’s record low but remaining 6% below average.

The Lethbridge feed barley price for the crop year averaged at C$417/t (tonne), down C$15/t y/y but the second highest on record.

For 2023-24, Canadian barley production is estimated at 7.84 Mt by Statistics Canada (STC) in its September 14 model-based yield and production estimates report. This implies a decrease of 21% y/y and 16% from the previous five-year average, primarily reflecting significant declines in yield estimates because of a dry growing season in Western Canada. Compared to 2021, when an unprecedented drought hit the Canadian Prairies and severely reduced field crop yield and production, 2023 barley production is estimated to be 12% higher, despite a decline of 12% in seeded area, as yield remains 27% higher than in 2021.

Despite an expected increase in carry-in stocks and imports, the significant decline in production will lead to a total supply of only 8.8 Mt for 2023-24, down sharply from last year and the average, and the second lowest on record. Total demand is predicted to decrease y/y, linked to lower feed use and exports, and a smaller supply.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.55 Mt, near the historical low set in 2021-22.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$350/t, lower than the historical highs seen in the previous two years, primarily under pressure from lower 2023-24 US corn prices and slow exports. Nevertheless, this level remains considerably above the five-year average.

World barley production for 2023-24 was estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 142 Mt, down significantly from 2022-23 and average levels. Global demand will decline to the lowest in five years and ending stocks will fall to a historical low.

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