EU & UK: Analysts reduce barley crop forecast on smaller output in Finland and parts of central Europe

RMI Analytics’ EU+UK barley crop forecast is down 0.2 mln tonnes to 54.46 mln tonnes, with output reduced in Finland and parts of central Europe where yields were lower, RMI Analytics said in their late Octobe report.

The weather leading up to and during harvest has created potential quality challenges in parts of northern Europe. The extent of these challenges is still being determined but there is a risk of further market volatility.

Ukraine’s production forecast remains low as farmers face challenges accessing credit for inputs and equipment, while also struggling to find farm labour. Barley production in Ukraine averaged nearly 8 mln tonnes from 2018-2022, while RMI Analytics’ crop 2023 estimate is 5.4 mln tonnes.

Much of the current European situation is widely known, but there are still lingering challenges related to the poor harvest weather across parts of northern Europe. Heading into 2024, the continued quality performance of crop 2023 remains something to monitor. Russia’s big barley crop is currently providing supply comfort for global end-users.

European malting prices have bounced higher as the final S&D for two-row barley is still being determined after a difficult harvest season. With a strong Chinese shipment program from France in place, the ability to balance demand (still weak) is quite limited.

Ukraine is shipping humanitarian grain to Africa through a new shipping route, despite Russia’s attempts to blockade shipments (e.g. missile attacks on Ukrainian terminals). Barley shipments are 650 thousand tonnes this year versus 950 thousand last year.