World: Global barley production forecast down 0.2 mln tonnes

Global barley production forecast is down 0.2 mln tonnes, to 140.5 mln, driven by a few small changes globally, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Australia’s barley crop forecast is up 0.2 mln tones on the basis of good rains over the past month, and quite favourable early harvest results.

EU27+UK forecast is down slightly (0.2 mln tonnes) in some minor adjustments to Finland and the Central Europe region.

A small drop of 0.2 mln tonnes in Russia’s barley crop estimate still leaves it at a very big crop of 20.7 mln tonnes.

Argentina’s barley crop forecast is unchanged, but crop conditions are good.

Global barley production is down 12 mln tonnes from crop 2022 and in exploring the longer term shifts in barley production it is clear Canada and Russia are performing well, while Ukraine struggles for clear reasons.

While the overall global price trend remains downward, this week there is a reversal move in European prices sparked by renewed questions from Denmark. The response has been French prices turning sharply upward. Weak demand shows very few signs of a rebound as evidenced by Heineken reporting weak Q3 beer volumes this week, at -4.2%.

The global market is at a critical point, as problems in Europe are being weighed against good crops in southern hemisphere. There is an expectation for good malting barley availability in Australia and Argentina (which is weighing on prices in these markets). One positive factor is strong Chinese import demand for barley which jumped to 1.03 mln tonnes in September 2023, an amazing 186% increase over September 2022. Concerns about the Brazilian crop are becoming elevated, the analysts said.

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